Uganda: the bet on a $500 billion economy by 2040

Uganda is entering a new phase of its economic development. Following the implementation of the Private Sector Development Programme under the third National Development Plan, authorities are now setting out a clear ambition: to scale up. The objective is striking—to raise gross domestic product from around $50 billion today to $500 billion by 2040. This trajectory is part of the “Tenfold Growth Strategy,” a roadmap aimed at sustaining double-digit growth over several years, a condition considered essential for long-term structural transformation of the economy.

A low-income but dynamic economy.

With nearly 46 million inhabitants, Uganda remains a low-income but dynamic economy. Growth is estimated at around 7 to 7.5 percent according to international institutions, driven by agriculture, services, and public investment. Official projections anticipate GDP reaching approximately $66 billion by 2026. While this progress is significant, it highlights the scale of the effort required to meet the 2040 target. Sustaining such a pace over nearly two decades represents a rare challenge, achieved by only a handful of countries, mostly in Asia.

Agro-industrialization, central

Uganda’s strategy is built on several key drivers. Agro-industrialization is central, with a focus on processing agricultural raw materials locally to capture greater value. Tourism is also identified as a high-potential sector, alongside mineral and oil resources. In addition, authorities are betting on science, technology, and innovation to modernize the economy. President Yoweri Museveni summed up this approach by stressing that “exporting raw materials is exporting jobs,” advocating for accelerated industrialization.

Launch of commercial oil production, a major lever

Official estimates suggest that certain agricultural value chains could generate up to $20 billion in additional revenue, while tourism could reach a potential of $50 billion. At the same time, the anticipated launch of commercial oil production represents a major lever. The International Monetary Fund believes this new phase could push economic growth above 10 percent in the short term, marking a turning point for the country.

Financial inclusion, another essential pillar

The role of the private sector appears decisive in this transformation. The government aims to improve access to credit, often considered too expensive for local businesses, and to develop financial markets. The objective is to facilitate financing for infrastructure, small and medium-sized enterprises, and industrial projects. Financial inclusion is another essential pillar: by bringing more citizens into the formal system, authorities hope to broaden the tax base and stimulate domestic consumption.

Improvements in governance, the fight against corruption, and the effectiveness of public action will be critical

Despite this optimism, challenges remain numerous. Improvements in governance, the fight against corruption, and the effectiveness of public action will be critical to attracting long-term investment. The cost of financing, in a global context marked by rising interest rates, is also a constraint. Moreover, previous development plans have sometimes suffered from delays or incomplete implementation, highlighting that execution will be just as important as vision.

Beyond Uganda, this ambition reflects a broader trend across the African continent, where several countries are seeking to accelerate industrialization and better integrate into global value chains. If successful, Uganda could become one of Africa’s most transformed economies by 2040. But between ambition and reality, the outcome will depend on the country’s ability to sustain reforms, mobilize investment, and turn strategy into concrete results.