Tunisia Ten years after the revolution, what remains of the Tunisian exception?
If you ask an average Tunisian, he will answer you with: « Not much … ». And yet, since January 14, when Tunisians took their destiny in hand, and at the same time inspired populations around the world, the country has changed profoundly. Among the main achievements of the revolution, the foundation of a new democratic base. But it is not democracy that feeds its man when the streets rumble from Tunis to Zarzis, passing for Sidi Bouzid, where it all began. Because long is the road to equality and justice, the watchwords of the jasmine revolution, and there are many pitfalls that remain to be overcome …
Analysis, by Dounia Ben Mohamed
After the rain comes the good weather. The saying might hold true for Tunisia. After having faced all the storms in 2020_political instability, explosion of inflation, Covid-19 pandemic, and finally a heavy recession, -9.1% _ still hidden by the clouds hovering over Tunisia, a rainbow sky is emerging. Indeed, according to the World Bank, in its latest report on the world economic outlook published recently, Tunisia will be among Africa’s champions of economic growth in 2021, alongside Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda and Botswana. With 5.8%. Even though the Institution is already announcing a slowdown in 2022, with growth of 2.2%, the return to growth is therefore expected.
Good news for the country which opened what was inaugurated the « Arab Spring », and finally the only one to have emerged from it without sinking into chaos, « the Tunisian exception » nevertheless draws a gloomy assessment of the tenth anniversary of its revolution. In fact, the current socio-economic situation is inglorious. If the progress made in the process of political transition towards an open and democratic system of governance is tangible – the organization of electoral meetings in transparency with undisputed results (2011, 2014 and the presidential election of October 2019) ; the adoption of a new constitution in 2014 guaranteeing individual rights and freedoms, which notably incorporates freedom of conscience and the civil character of the state, and confirms the nature of the regime, parliamentary, thus limiting the power of the president; the promulgation of laws which mark major advances in the area of individual freedoms, including that on equality between men and women in terms of inheritance; against violence against women; all forms of racial discrimination, a law that grants universal medical coverage to all citizens … – the economic transition has not followed the same pace (See Interview Taieb Talbi « Change, evolve or perish, this is the choice that is offered by History to Tunisia »).
« Resilient until then in the face of the multiple crises faced, the Covid-19 pandemic has killed an already very ill patient … »
Resilient until then in the face of the multiple crises faced_ the Libyan chaos followed by terrorist attacks, the rise in oil prices, and the Covid 19 pandemic which ended an already very ill patient … « The GDP fell by 21.6% in Q2 2020 year-on-year, Coface analysis. Exports of goods and services (50% of GDP in 2019), recorded a drop of 20.6% in value in H1 2020 year-on-year. The majority of sectors are affected. « Starting with tourism, at a standstill following the attacks, before a slight recovery again interrupted by the pandemic. “Tourism’s direct contribution to GDP was 13.9% in 2019. This sector is shut down following the closure of national borders for 14 weeks and containment measures. Tourism receipts thus fell by 47% in H1 2020 year-on-year ”, underlines Coface.
Debt, unemployment and inflation amid political instability
The World Bank report points out in particular « the already high public debt burden », around 80%. While the social climate is deteriorating. The unemployment rate is increasing and is expected to rise to 21.6% in 2020, after reaching 15% in 2019, and inflation is weighing on the standard of living of households already affected by political instability and the rise corruption. While a reshuffle is underway, with new figures from the private sector in particular, but no women, the recent scuffles between young people and law enforcement authorities testify to the tension that weighs down. Political instability, the gloomy economy, and the rise of populist discourse, the challenges of the young democracy.
That being said, the country retains a certain number of assets, which are among the foundations of Tunisian society, namely the dynamics and resilience of its private sector, a fabric of SMEs which continues, against all odds, to innovate. , export and create jobs; civil society, more mobilized than ever, on all fronts. Added to this the support of international donors, and in particular the IMF within the framework of an extended credit mechanism (MEDC) program and the proximity of the European market and association agreement with the EU … and a openness to the continent, slow of course, but more and more assertive as demonstrated by the accession of Tunisia to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, Comesa. This area is based on a Customs Union between its 21 member countries, a market area of 500 million inhabitants, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of 800 billion dollars, and at the same time to benefit from the Free Trade Treaty tripartite (TFTA), a free trade integration area bringing together three African economic regions from Cairo to Cape Town: Comesa, the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) . This represents six countries for a market of 625 million consumers and a global GDP of over $ 1 trillion. Not to mention the African Continental Free Trade Area, which has just started (read the interview with Chawki Jebali « The opportunities of the AfCFTA for Tunisia will be numerous »).
A technological hub that asserts itself and inspires
Moreover, thanks to the efficiency of its medical platform, and the mobilization of its civil society and its private sector, Tunisia is one of the first countries to put in place measures to limit the impact of the pandemic on the health plan but also economic. This country is one of the best-performing countries. Going so far as to innovate, through initiatives such as those of Enova Robotics (see the video report Enova Robotics, an innovation made in Tunisia) which made robots available to authorities to ensure controls during periods of confinement in the streets of Tunis and others for the monitoring of patients in health establishments. Technological advances which confirm the country’s positioning as a technological hub (Read Interview Khaled Ben Jilani « The innovative ecosystem provides certain solutions, not all of them but a breath of fresh air to young people for whom the Tunisian economy does not offer future solutions »), in terms of artificial intelligence, in particular, with a tech ecosystem that has particularly benefited from the adoption of the Startup Act, since registered as a referent by the AU, already inspiring other countries of the continent including Senegal, Mali and most recently Rwanda. With other measures such as the law on Crowdfunding, the sector must take off, and be reflected in the economy which is becoming more and more diversified, developing alternatives to tourism, at half mast, with high added value activities, such as aeronautics booming for a decade and which is confirmed.
“Despite the pandemic, the foundations of a new model of sustainable development driven by skills and innovation have been consolidated. They go hand in hand with the post-COVID world ”
This gives hope for a brighter tomorrow for the young Tunisian democracy, whose future will undoubtedly depend on the economic recovery. To believe Zied Lahbib from Fipa (Read Interview Zied Lahbib « The post-Covid attractivity of the Tunisian site will be mainly supported by innovation »), the body in charge of promoting Made in Tunisia, even if the population does not yet benefit from it, the fallout from the democratization of the country has resulted in measures that have laid the groundwork for a more modern, just, and prosperous society. “At the start of the year, the effects of a multi-dimensional crisis and the ambient gloom try to mask the resilience that Tunisia has shown during 2020. The contraction of the economy will be close to double digits, but it will was strongly impacted by exogenous effects, ”he concedes before showing more enthusiasm. He adds that: “In 2020, pioneering socio-economic reforms have emerged. They were developed through close consultation between the public and private operators. The Crowdfunding Act completed the Startup Act and will allow intermediary platforms to play a financing role for companies.
The year 2020 also confirmed the effectiveness of the Startup Act, which consolidated the innovation ecosystem and was duplicated by African countries such as Senegal, Mali and Rwanda.
The laws on Crowdfunding, on the social and solidarity economy, the creation of the status of Auto-Entrepreneur are all frameworks capable of enabling inclusion, boosting entrepreneurship and boosting innovation. « He concludes: » Despite the pandemic, the foundations of a new model of sustainable development driven by skills and innovation have been consolidated. They go hand in hand with.
