MENA : fragile but sustained economic recovery in 2026
The latest economic projections published by the World Bank show that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)region is headed toward a moderate and gradual recovery in 2025–2026, despite ongoing conflicts, regional political uncertainties and persistent structural vulnerabilities that continue to weigh on growth. This dynamic has attracted the attention of economic and financial policymakers in North African countries and on the southern rim of the Mediterranean, for whom regional economic integration and links with Middle Eastern markets remain essential levers of broader development.
According to the updated regional economic outlook, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) region is projected to grow by 2.8 % in 2025 and about 3.3 % in 2026, up from 2.3 % in 2024. The acceleration reflects a stronger‑than‑expected performance in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and an improvement in domestic demand among oil‑importing countries, where private consumption and investment are helping to rekindle economic activity.
Improvement is also supported by a slight rebound in agriculture and tourism in some energy‑importing countries, partially compensating for the slowdown seen in developing oil exporters, where conflicts and reduced production continue to weigh on growth.
Risks from global uncertainty — notably in trade policy and energy price volatility — remain elevated
However, this recovery remains fragile, as risks arising from global uncertainty — particularly in trade policy and the volatility of energy prices — remain elevated and could dampen external demand for goods exported by the region. In addition, ongoing wars and geopolitical tensions continue to have a negative influence on the business environment and long‑term investment flows.
In terms of economic structure, the World Bank highlights that fully harnessing the available labor force in the region — especially women’s participation — represents a significant opportunity to accelerate growth and improve living standards. The persistent gap in women’s participation in the labor market remains a major obstacle, which, if narrowed, could substantially increase per capita incomes and strengthen overall productivity in countries such as Egypt, Jordan or Pakistan.
In specific countries within the region, forecasts reveal contrasting but generally positive trajectories. For example, projections for Morocco indicate economic growth surpassing the regional average, with GDP expected to expand by around 3.5 % in 2026, reflecting both an improvement in climatic conditions after a period of drought and stabilization in key sectors of the national economy.
Growth rebound for Gulf economies
The situation for Gulf economies is also marked by a rebound in growth, partly thanks to the gradual rollback of voluntary production cuts under OPEC+ and sustained expansion in non‑oil sectors, which have helped offset stagnation or weak growth seen in 2024. This economic diversification, particularly in services, construction and tourism, has contributed to strengthening the region’s economic resilience despite persistent external risks.
For North African countries and those neighboring the Middle East, these regional perspectives carry important implications. The interdependence of economies through trade, investment flows and labor migration means that more favorable economic conditions in the MENA region can translate into increased demand for manufactured and agricultural products, improved remittance flows and strengthened cross‑Mediterranean trade links. This is particularly relevant for countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, which traditionally benefit from close economic relations with their Middle Eastern neighbors.
Nevertheless, structural challenges remain significant. Labor market participation, fiscal constraints and vulnerabilities caused by conflict are all factors that could slow the growth trajectory if appropriate policies are not implemented. Moreover, continued volatility in energy prices and persistent uncertainty in global markets could limit the ability of these economies to attract sustainable foreign direct investment.
In this context, economic policymakers and international investors are closely monitoring developments in the MENAAP region’s macroeconomic indicators, recognizing that a robust and sustained recovery will depend as much on internal structural reforms as on the stability of the geopolitical climate and global markets.
