Global labour market : a deceptive stability…

While headline indicators appear to be stabilising, the latest annual report on employment and social trends published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) offers an unvarnished assessment: the apparent resilience of the global labour market masks a persistent crisis in job quality. According to the UN agency, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in 2026, representing around 186 million people without work, a figure virtually unchanged from 2025.

The resilience of economic growth and the stability of unemployment figures must not distract us from a deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality and exclusion

warns Gilbert F. Houngbo, Director-General of the ILO

The statistical illusion of recovery

Behind this stability lies a far more troubling reality: nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than three dollars a day, while informality continues to expand. The ILO estimates that 2.1 billion people will be in informal employment by 2026, without social protection or job security.

For Africa, where the informal economy already accounts for more than 80% of total employment in some countries, this global trend deepens a long-standing structural imbalance: economic growth does not automatically translate into decent jobs.

African youth: a generation under pressure

Young people remain the primary victims of this dynamic. In 2025, the unemployment rate among 15–24-year-olds stood at 12.4%, with around 260 million young people worldwide neither in employment, education nor training (NEETs). In sub-Saharan Africa, this challenge is compounded by rapid demographic growth and the limited capacity of economies to absorb new entrants into the labour market.

The ILO also highlights an emerging risk: artificial intelligence and automation, which could disrupt access to first jobs, particularly in skilled professions.

“While the overall impact of AI on youth employment remains uncertain, its potential scale warrants close attention,” the report notes.

Global trade, debt and structural vulnerabilities

The organisation also warns about the effects of disruptions to global trade and uncertainty surrounding trade rules. Geopolitical tensions, logistical bottlenecks and high debt levels are weighing on wages and productivity, particularly in the most vulnerable regions.

“Uncertainty surrounding trade rules and supply chains is exerting direct pressure on workers’ incomes,” the ILO stresses.

Yet international trade remains a major pillar of global employment, supporting around 465 million workers worldwide, more than half of them in Asia and the Pacific. For Africa, the challenge is to convert these exchanges into locally value-added jobs, in a context of heightened competition and constrained fiscal space.

Demography: a two-speed world of work

Finally, the report highlights a striking demographic contrast. While advanced economies are seeing their labour forces slow due to ageing populations, low-income countries – particularly in Africa – are struggling to turn demographic dynamism into productive employment.

In response to these challenges, the ILO calls for coordinated policies: large-scale investment in skills, education and infrastructure, reduction of gender and generational inequalities, and responsible use of technology.

“The benefits of trade and technology for decent work must be strengthened, while risks linked to debt, AI and trade uncertainty are mitigated,” the organisation concludes.

For Africa, the message is clear: without deep structural transformation, the stability of global unemployment will remain an illusion, and the promise of a demographic dividend will continue to be deferred.