Global Economy 2026 : slowdown or rebound ?

According to this updated World Economic Outlook report, global gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.3 % in 2026, 0.2 percentage points higher than the IMF’s October 2025 forecast, and roughly in line with 3.3 % growth expected in 2025. The IMF also projects growth of 3.2 % in 2027.

A global economy that « remains quite resilient« 

This revision reflects a global economy that, despite ongoing challenges such as the lingering effects of tariff policies and fragile supply chains, “remains quite resilient,” according to the IMF’s chief economist.

In explaining the updated forecast, Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas told reporters: “We find that global growth remains quite resilient… the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started.”

This highlights an important point: despite a series of external shocks — particularly from tariff increases — businesses have managed to adapt supply chains and diversify markets, which helped soften the expected negative impact on global economic growth.

Investment in technology, particularly AI, appears to be a key driver of this upward revision

Investment in technology, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), is identified as one of the main engines behind the upward revision. In the United States, significant investment in AI infrastructure — including data centers and advanced AI chips — is estimated to have contributed to a revised forecast of 2.4 % GDP growth in 2026, up from earlier projections, while other major economies also saw modest upward revisions.

However, these same investments carry risks. The IMF warns that if expected productivity gains from AI fail to materialize, it could trigger market corrections that dampen demand and weigh on growth — illustrating that the upside potential from technology is coupled with significant downside risk.

In addition to technological uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and unstable trade policies remain key downside risks for the global outlook.

Uneven growth across regions

The IMF’s updated forecast also underscores notable differences across regions. Advanced economies are expected to grow more moderately — with the euro area, for example, projected at 1.3 % in 2026 — while some emerging and developing markets are forecast to expand faster, contributing to the uneven global outlook.

This heterogeneity in growth exposes economies to divergent performance paths: countries deeply integrated into high‑tech value chains or benefiting from strong investment flows are better positioned, while those tied to traditional growth models may struggle to accelerate.

Inflation and monetary policy: A context that is favorable but fragile

In its projections, the IMF also expects a continued decline in global inflation, from an estimated 4.1 % in 2025 to 3.8 % in 2026, and further to 3.4 % in 2027. This decline creates more room for accommodative monetary policies in many countries, which could support economic activity in the short term.

Despite these optimistic signs, the institution urges caution. The apparent resilience of the global economy should not obscure structural vulnerabilities, such as slowing productivity outside the tech sector and high public debt levels in several advanced economies — factors that could constrain long‑term growth.

A world in economic transition

The IMF’s updated outlook paints a picture of a global economy adapting after major disruptions, particularly those related to trade policy shifts and tariff measures of recent years. The growth of investment in high technology — especially AI — emerges as a central pillar of renewed momentum. For international analysts, this dynamic suggests that growth in 2026 will not be uniform, but rather characterized by regional contrasts, varied sectoral dependencies, and a strong influence of technological innovation on overall economic prospects.