Cocoa : sweet-and-sour christmas, prices drop 45% but chocolate stays premium

After nearing $12,000 per ton at the end of 2024, cocoa now trades around $5,000 per ton, a drop of more than 50% in a single year. This correction is driven by two main factors: higher-than-expected Ivorian harvests and the gradual unwinding of speculation that had fueled the 2024 price surge. Despite this dramatic decline, prices remain roughly twice the 2012-2022 average of $2,525 per ton.

“After two years of tension, this correction brings prices to more rational levels. But the sector remains fragile,” notes Simon Lacoume, sector economist.

Persistent Structural Tensions

Even though the effects of El Niño and the swollen shoot virus have eased, the sector’s vulnerabilities persist. Plantations are aging, investments remain insufficient, and production is highly concentrated in West Africa. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana together account for nearly 60% of global cocoa production, rising to 70% when considering the entire region. This concentration makes the market particularly sensitive to any local disruptions.

Strong and Premium Global Demand

Chocolate consumption continues to grow, especially in Asia and in the premium segments. Ethical, organic, low-sugar chocolates, as well as certified cocoa (Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance), are gaining ground. This sustained demand explains why, despite the drop in cocoa prices, the cost of premium chocolate bars remains stable.

At the same time, producing countries are working to capture more value: Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are expanding domestic cocoa processing, reducing dependence on foreign markets and generating more sustainable local revenues.

Sustainability and Diversification: The Key to the Future

While West Africa remains dominant, other regions aim to play a larger role. Ecuador, for instance, plans to surpass Ghana by 2027, targeting 650,000 tons of cocoa production per year. EU-imposed traceability mechanisms and the PRRD (Reference Price for a Decent Income), implemented in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, further strengthen pressure for a more sustainable and transparent sector. Farm-gate floor prices – $3,408 per ton in Ghana and $2,650 per ton in Côte d’Ivoire – guarantee producers a minimum income, stabilizing the supply chain and supporting sector resilience.

This combination of geographic diversification, sustainability, and local initiatives shows that, despite its volatility, the cocoa sector can continue to meet global demand while supporting producers and ensuring premium chocolate for consumers.

Key Figures:

• 45%: drop in cocoa prices since January 2025
• $5,000: current price per ton of cocoa
• 60%: share of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana in global production