Analysis: The Commonwealth and Africa… a new chapter begins
Initially scheduled for 2020, then last summer but again postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, also known as CHOGM will finally be held in Kigali, from June 20 to 26. Traditionally held every two years, this summit brings together the 54 countries that make up the Commonwealth, among them 19 African countries, mostly former colonies, as well as new members, including Rwanda, the latest member of the organization and host of the event, which has not been held in Africa since Uganda, a decade ago. Analysis
By Dounia Ben Mohamed, Kigali
The event takes place in a specific context for both the Crown and Africa. The still heavy impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African socio-economic fabric, the latent food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, but also this new post-Brexit era in which the British are trying to redefine themselves and open up to new markets. The United Kingdom has indeed left the European Union in 2020 and has been working since then to redefine its position in the world and in Africa particularly. If bilateral relations have already been reviewed with strategic countries of the continent, Nigeria among others, the June meeting will be an opportunity to return to a continent with which the relationship is certainly old but tends to be rewritten (Read CHOGM 2022 in 10 points).
«The Commonwealth is becoming more and more important and CHOGM will prove it »
And to set itself apart from the influential powers on the continent, starting with China, the former ally of the European Union, but also the United States, Turkey, Japan and Russia, whose presence is growing, the United Kingdom intends to rely on one of its cornerstones, the Commonwealth. The organization, born in the first half of the 20th century from the remnants of the British Empire and in order to maintain privileged relations with its former colonies, intends to modernize and regain its influence in Africa as well as on the international scene, (Read the interview with Omar Daair, British High Commissioner to Rwanda).
«Britain has what it takes to become Africa’s ‘obvious partner of choice’ »
That is indeed the idea. Strengthening economic relations between member countries and with Africa in particular. The continent, with 19 member countries, dominates the organization. Already, in 2018, Theresa May, during her tour of Africa _ in Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria_, the first of a British Prime Minister to Africa for five years, set the tone: namely to make Britain the leading G7 business investor in Africa. « As the UK prepares to leave the European Union, we are determined to ensure a smooth transition that guarantees the continuity of our trading relationship. » A statement coupled with the announcement of an investment plan of €4.4 billion to support African economies and a new « unabashed » approach to development assistance. “I am unashamed about the need to ensure that our aid program works for the UK. [They must] not only combat extreme poverty, but at the same time tackle global challenges and support our own national interest,” It was in this sense that the UK signed a new « strategic partnership » with the African Union (AU) the previous year, which aims to strengthen cooperation with African countries.
Boris Johnson in turn will declare that Britain has what it takes to become Africa’s « obvious partner of choice » for doing business after the Brexit. A conference in January 2020, UK-Africa Investment Summit, in London will mark the first step. Chaired by Boris Johnson and co-organized with the Department for International Development (DfID), it will have brought together some twenty countries from the continent, representatives of both the public and private sectors to promote investment opportunities in Africa. This is while trade between Africa and the United Kingdom is not very developed, barely 3% of British exports and imports, more than 50% of which are with two countries, Mauritius and South Africa. However, trade agreements worth £6.5 billion ($8.2 billion at current exchange rates) were signed by British companies, on the sidelines of the summit.
« One more voice for Africa to defend its interests on the international scene »
On the African side, too, there is renewed interest in the Commonwealth. While the historical members are former colonies, new countries have joined the organization in recent decades. The first country admitted that was never part of the British Empire or under the control of a member – Mozambique – in 1995; Rwanda, then in diplomatic break with France and the Francophonie, in 2009, while others – Togo, Algeria, Madagascar, Sudan and Yemen – have expressed their intention to follow suit.
For some, joining the Commonwealth does not mean leaving the Francophonie, _ an organization that groups together a large number of French-speaking nations and includes 28 African countries, as a reminder_ it responds above all to economic interests, to increase their commercial but also diplomatic relations with the English-speaking world. Joining the Commonwealth is also a voice more for Africa to defend its interests on the international scene while it is already making headway in this area. It has, for example, supported the interests of Africa within the EU and particularly in the agricultural sector.
« Bilateral trade costs between Commonwealth countries are on average 19 % lower than other trading partners »
Most importantly, joining the Crown Community would be cost-effective. With the combined GDP of Commonwealth countries amounting to $13.1 billion in 2021 projected to reach $19.5 billion in 2027, nearly doubling in ten years from $10.4 billion in 2017; bilateral trade costs between Commonwealth countries are on average 19% lower than other trading partners. Half of the world’s top 20 emerging cities are in the Commonwealth: New Delhi, Mumbai, Nairobi, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore, Johannesburg, Kolkata, Cape Town, Chennai and Dhaka.
Although the Commonwealth does not have a multilateral trade agreement, research by the Royal Commonwealth Society has shown that trade with another Commonwealth member is on average up to 50 per cent higher than with a non-member, with smaller and less wealthy states having a greater propensity to trade within the Commonwealth. At the 2005 summit in Malta, heads of government endorsed the continuation of free trade among Commonwealth members on a bilateral basis.
Similarly, according to a study conducted by OECD Development Matters, higher GDP growth rates in Commonwealth LDCs have been accompanied by larger trade volumes. “Collectively, global goods and services exports by all 47 LDCs rose from USD 215 billion in 2011 to just over USD 241 billion in 2019, an increase of around 12%. The corresponding increase for the Commonwealth LDCs was 41%. Their exports grew from USD 57 billion to about USD 80 billion at an average rate of 3.7% per annum, compared with just 0.6% for the 47 LDCs and 1.2% across the world.”
Commonwealth LDCs relied heavily on intra-Commonwealth trade during the pandemic, which grew significantly despite the 54-member body not being a trading bloc. In 2019, the Commonwealth absorbed one quarter (USD 19 billion) of their total goods and services exports (USD 79 billion). During the pre-pandemic years (2011-2019), the share of Commonwealth LDCs in intra-Commonwealth goods exports climbed from 2.18% to 3.4%. Over the same period, the share of LDCs in world trade stagnated at 1%.
« ‘A Commonwealth Advantage’: Building, Strengthening and Sustaining Trading Relationships between Commonwealth LDCs and Other Member Countries »
This increase in exports is driven by a significant and growing “Commonwealth advantage” in trade helping to build, strengthen and sustain trading relationships between Commonwealth LDCs and other member countries. Historical ties, familiar legal and administrative systems, the widespread use of English and the presence of large and dynamic diasporas, mean bilateral trade costs are around 21% lower, on average, for Commonwealth country pairs compared with the cost of trading with non-Commonwealth countries.
While the British government has promised to improve the EU-Africa trade model and better protect the interests of African nations, so far the UK has signed post-Brexit trade agreements with 13 African countries. But these new agreements, which offer duty-free and quota-free access to British markets, aren’t much different to the old ones. They are primarily so-called rollover agreements — that is, they simply transfer the conditions in the EU deals into bilateral agreements between the UK and the African nation, or blocs.
Bilateral agreements, however, come up against regional blocs’ politics, particularly in the context of the establishment of the AfCFTA. Thus, the agreement with Kenya has raised tensions within the East African Community.
Meanwhile, while Ghana and Nigeria failed to seal an agreement with the United Kingdom before the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020, Nigeria is an important player in intra-Commonwealth trade: the continent’s largest economy, 30% of its exports are reportedly destined for the bloc’s market. India alone also accounts for 15% of Nigeria’s exports. Nigeria is also the fifth largest economy in the Commonwealth and, together with South Africa, accounts for about 70% of the Commonwealth’s African trade.
« A UK-Africa trade deal would create jobs and boost the Commonwealth»
President Muhammadu Buhari declared in an opinion published on June 23, 2022 that “a United Kingdom – Africa deal would create jobs and boost the Commonwealth, after the Brexit.” It is now possible (Read his full speech). « Last September, the UK made history by becoming the first country in the world to sign a memorandum with the 54-nation African Union Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This agreement is expected to lead to a free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the African Union. This would be a parity agreement, as Africa’s combined GDP of $3 trillion is equivalent to that of the U.K., the world’s fifth largest economy. »
« When you look at the opportunities this brings to Africa and our Commonwealth we believe that by working together we will be able to improve trade »
The future of post-Brexit United Kingdom is therefore being played out in Africa (Read Morgan Philips Study United Kingdom post-Brexit: (re)connecting with Africa). CHOGM 2022, the first Commonwealth summit to be held in a country that is not a former colony or the United Kingdom itself, will have to mark the ushering into this new era. « The good thing about our Commonwealth is that we have a lot in common: we have a common language, we have a common structure in terms of parliamentary structure, we have similar institutions that share the rule of law. All of these things make our trade more than 21% cheaper, easier and faster than each other, » Commonwealth Secretary General Patricia Scotland QC said in her remarks at the 12th Commonwealth Africa Regional Heads of Anti-Corruption Agencies Conference in Kigali on May 3. Just before COVID, we had almost $700 billion in intra-Commonwealth trade. That number has gone down [due to the impact of the pandemic], but now it seems to be back to that $700 billion. But we hope to reach $1 trillion by 2030. And you know in Africa, African countries have joined the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. So when you look at the opportunities that this brings to Africa and to our Commonwealth, with trade facilitation, we believe that by working together, we will be able to improve trade, especially digital trade. »
On the war in Ukraine. « These are issues that we’re going to discuss, because of course as this crisis unfolds; we’ve realized what we need to do to improve our food security. So this is a challenge, but also an opportunity. How do we improve the agri-food sector across the Commonwealth, how do we make each of our countries more sustainable, how do we share technology and expertise to improve the opportunity we all have to feed our people? »
These are all questions that will be discussed during the event. This 2022 edition must also conclude on the election of the secretary general. The outgoing secretary general, Patricia Scotland, a British diplomat, lawyer and politician born in Dominica, is standing for re-election against Jamaican Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kamina Johnson Smith, who has received the support of the United Kingdom. Whoever wins, the new secretary-general will be responsible for modernizing the institution. Meanwhile, at the end of CHOGM 2022, Rwandan President Paul Kagame will take over from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as the chair-in-office of the Commonwealth of Nations for the next two years. It will be a new opportunity for the Rwandan leader to make his country shine on the international scene.
