Egypt: Moody’s Affirms Caa1 Rating with Positive Outlook

Credit agency Moody’s Ratings has affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit rating at Caa1 for both foreign and local currency, retaining a Positive Outlook, reflecting cautious confidence in ongoing policy reforms. The affirmation highlights sustained primary fiscal surpluses since FY2024 and a tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Egypt, which helped bring inflation down to 13.4 % in February 2026 from an average of 33.3 % in 2024. However, Moody’s notes that high public debt (above 82 % of GDP) and substantial financing needs continue to constrain the credit profile. The agency expects average primary surpluses of around 4 % of GDP in the coming years, supported by fiscal reforms including elimination of certain tax exemptions and improved revenue measures.