CAN Morocco 2025 : when the economy explains (Also) sporting results
In this op-ed, Blaise-Henri N’DIA analyzes CAN 2025 from a unique perspective: economic and social. According to him, African football is not only played on the pitch but also depends on the strength of national economies that fund preparation, infrastructure, and competitiveness.
By Blaise-Henri N’DIA*
Looking at the CAN from an economic perspective, one fact stands out: this tournament does not pit only teams against each other, but also economic and social performances.
The overall weight of the competition
The 24 countries participating in CAN represent:
- approximately 85% of Africa’s GDP
- for only ≈ 68% of the continent’s population
CAN is therefore not an accurate snapshot of Africa’s demographics, but a showcase of productive Africa
Indeed:
- 7 of the 10 richest countries in Africa (including the top 5) are present,
- 9 of the 10 most populous countries also participate.
In a long tournament, GDP is a performance driver. Economies able to fund scouting, preparation, qualifications, infrastructure, and participation start with a structural advantage.
Emblematic case:
Group B (Egypt, South Africa, Angola, Zimbabwe) is the richest economically, concentrating 33.5% of Africa’s GDP for 15% of the population, with the highest per capita GDP in the tournament ($4,330 USD).
Alone, this group weighs more than groups A, D, E, and F combined.
Conversely:
Group D is the weakest economically: only 4.9% of Africa’s GDP for more than 9% of the population, i.e., $1,490 USD per capita. This low overall per capita GDP is heavily dragged down by the Democratic Republic of Congo.
CAN favors resilient economies, not strained economies
Among the four countries with a per capita GDP above $5,000 USD, three are eliminated (Botswana, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon). The real distribution of wealth and interest in football may explain these underperformances.
Conversely, all countries with a per capita GDP between $2,000 and $5,000 USD, except Angola, are qualified for the next round (Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Côte d’Ivoire).
In some groups, the GDP max/min gap exceeds x30. For per capita GDP, the gap reaches x14.
Economies that are weak both demographically and economically face cumulative disadvantages. CAN favors resilient economies, not strained economies.
On the pitch as in the economy: structure beats mass
CAN is an allegory of African development:
Africa will succeed through productivity, not demographics.
Football reveals what macro statistics already indicate.
On the pitch as in the economy: structure beats mass.
The real African CAN is played through quality, organization, and sustainability.
The sporting draw matters almost as much as economic indicators.
*Blaise-Henri N’DIA is Deputy Director of Quality, Studies and Organization at IPS – Caisse Nationale de Prévoyance Sociale, Côte d’Ivoire
This op-ed reflects the opinion of its author, and the responsibility for the information and analysis presented rests solely with him.
