AfCFTA : a continental market taking shape and attracting capital
Namibia’s first commercial shipment under the AfCFTA, launched on June 30 from the port of Walvis Bay, illustrates the gradual realization of the African single market. While ambitions are high, early signals are measured but point to an economic shift. The World Bank anticipates a multiplier effect on foreign direct investment, with a potential increase of 120%.
On June 30, 2025, from the port of Walvis Bay, Namibia reached a symbolic milestone: its first commercial cargo under the AfCFTA banner. Led by the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Selma Ashipala-Musavyi, this shipment marks the country’s official entry into the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. Though modest, this initial dispatch is part of an increasingly visible continental momentum where economic integration is no longer just a political project but an emerging reality on the ground.
Today, intra-African trade accounts for only about 15% of the continent’s total trade – a paradox for such a vast and diverse region
The African Continental Free Trade Area, signed in March 2018 in Kigali and effective since January 2021, is hailed as the continent’s most ambitious trade reform since independence. With 55 signatory countries, 1.3 billion inhabitants, and a combined GDP exceeding $3.4 trillion, the AfCFTA aims to progressively eliminate 90% of tariffs on goods, harmonize trade rules, and boost intra-African exchanges. Today, intra-African trade represents only about 15% of total continental trade – a paradox for such a vast and diverse region.
The legal framework is progressing, with protocols adopted on investment, competition, digital trade, and intellectual property. As tariff barriers fall, non-tariff obstacles (customs procedures, rules of origin, infrastructure) emerge as the next major challenge. Progress on these fronts remains slow but encouraging. Pilot initiatives, such as the Guided Trade Initiative launched in October 2022, have allowed countries like Kenya, Ghana, Rwanda, and Cameroon to test the agreement on targeted exports: coffee, ceramic products, tea, and fertilizers.
According to projections, it could generate a 9% increase in real incomes by 2035 across the continent and lift 50 million people out of extreme poverty
Expectations go well beyond trade facilitation. A recent World Bank report, published in June 2025, highlights a massive transformative potential if AfCFTA is fully implemented. Projections show it could generate a 9% rise in real incomes by 2035 continent-wide, lift 50 million people out of extreme poverty, and, importantly, attract a massive increase in foreign direct investment. “With a unified regulatory framework and improved infrastructure, AfCFTA could lead to a 111% to 159% increase in foreign FDI, and up to 85% growth in intra-African FDI,” the report states.
These forecasts rely notably on strengthened legal security for investors, simplified customs procedures, and creation of efficient logistics corridors. Tools like PAPSS (Pan-African Payment and Settlement System), established by Afreximbank, now facilitate transactions in local currencies, reducing dependence on the dollar and euro.
Alignment of national laws with AfCFTA protocols remains uneven
Despite these positive signs, the path to fully operational economic integration is still filled with obstacles. The alignment of national legislation with AfCFTA protocols remains uneven. Weak transport and energy infrastructure slow the flow of goods. Finally, the capacity building of local small and medium enterprises, which are central to Africa’s economy, remains marginal.
But progress is being made. Countries like Senegal, Ghana, South Africa, and Morocco are heavily investing in logistics platforms and integrated industrial parks. Africa lacks neither resources nor political will. What was once an elite project is beginning, through concrete examples like Namibia’s, to translate into tangible opportunities for businesses across the continent.
